Research

This section covers two arcs of my research: conflict dynamics and women’s economic empowerment.

Publications

Addressing gender-based segregation through information: Evidence from a randomized experiment in the Republic of Congo

With Léa Rouanet and Lacina Traoré

This paper tests the effect of randomly providing information on trade-specific earnings on trade choice of men and women applying to a vocational training program in the Republic of Congo. When receiving this information, both men and women apply to be trained in more lucrative trades. As a result, treated women are 28.6% more likely to apply to a traditionally male-dominated trade. These findings suggest that this kind of low-cost information intervention can be an effective way to reduce the gender gap in earnings.

Economic Development and Cultural Change 73, no. 1 (January 2024): 167–193.

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/726710

The profits of wisdom: The impact of a business support program in Tanzania

With Elena Bardasi, Markus Goldstein, and Alaka Holla

Business training programs in low-income settings have shown only limited impacts on firm revenues and profits, particularly for female entrepreneurs. A randomized design was used to compare the impacts of two types of business training programs targeting women with established small businesses in urban Tanzania. The basic version relied on in-class sessions to strengthen the participants’ managerial and technical skills. In the enhanced version, training was supplemented by visits from business coaches to the sites of participants’ activities, as well as other services tailored to their individual needs. The basic training had no impact on business practices or outcomes. The enhanced training positively impacted the adoption of new practices but had no effects on revenue or profits. However, the average masks large heterogeneous effects: only more experienced entrepreneurs benefited from the program. This finding suggests that more careful targeting can improve the impact of business training programs.

The World Bank Economic Review 35, no. 2, (May 2021): 328–347

Book chapters

Identifying the Determinants of Rebel Strategies of Local Implantation in Civil Conflicts in Ethiopia (1974–1991) and South Sudan (1983–2005) [Identifier les déterminants des stratégies rebelles d’implantation locale dans les conflits civils en Éthiopie (1974–1991) et au Soudan du Sud (1983–2005)].

How do rebel groups approach local power structures as they strive to assert territorial control? The literature on the formation of rebel groups highlights how these organizations take advantage of existing institutions and networks. However, an examination of the strategies that rebel organizations deploy to consolidate their support base suggests that there are significant differences between the ways in which these organizations establish themselves locally. Using a new database of the political practices of 126 rebel groups, this article shows that more than a third of these groups have, to varying degrees, set about transforming the political and social hierarchies that organized local communities. Furthermore, by comparing the trajectories of insurgent groups that formed during the civil conflicts in Ethiopia (1974–1991) and South Sudan (1983–2005), the study highlights how these groups’ attitudes toward local power structures evolve depending on the conditions of conflict and the resilience of established elites.

Annuaire français de relations internationales 2023: 303–317. Éditions Panthéon-Assas. https://shs.cairn.info/annuaire-francais-de-relations–9782376510550-page-303?lang=fr.

Working papers

Mitigating the impact of household expropriation on female entrepreneurship : Experimental evidence from Ghana

With Francisco Campos, Adriana Conconi, Elwyn Davies, and Markus Goldstein

How do intrahousehold dynamics affect the investment of female entrepreneurs? This paper presents findings from a randomized controlled trial in Ghana that assesses the impacts of four alternative support mechanisms on women-owned businesses: (a) an unconditional grant provided through a mobile money account equivalent to two months of median profits, (b) an unconditional grant disbursed to the female entrepreneurs’ spouses in similar conditions; (c) a grant conditional on participating with their spouses in a training on joint decision-making; and (d) a grant conditional on reaching a savings goal under a dedicated bank account. In line with Fafchamps et al. (2014), the study finds no impacts of the unconditional grants on the business performance of female entrepreneurs. The disbursement to the spouse also has no impact on the sales, profits, or investment of female entrepreneurs. Although there is no evidence that the allocation of resources within households is efficient, the joint decision-making intervention leads to increased household support for the women’s businesses but does not impact business performance. The savings support mechanism leads to a 15 percent increase in sales and a 10 percent increase in profits. These effects are largest among female entrepreneurs who faced high expropriation pressure at baseline. This subgroup obtains a 29 percent increase in sales and a 23 percent increase in profits. The paper tests for alternative mechanisms, including self-control issues, liquidity constraints, and access to savings, but these do not explain the results. The findings substantiate that intrahousehold dynamics matter for women’s investment decisions, and highlight the importance of promoting autonomy in the face of expropriation pressures, for increased growth and investment.

Policy Research Working Paper Series no. 11111. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2025

Armed Groups’ Modes of Local Engagement and Post-Conflict (in)stability: Insights from the Ethiopian and Somali Civil Wars

What distinguishes post-war governments that succeed in establishing a stable political order and prevent recurring conflict from those that do not? This comparative study considers the specific threats that typically lead to the collapse of the post-conflict political order to offer new hypotheses on the conditions that affect post-war governments’ ability to sustainably restore stability. The threats considered include (i) fragmentation of the main actors in the conflict, (ii) inadequate demobilization, and (iii) enduring dependence of the post-war government on local brokers. Post-war regimes are more vulnerable to such risks after wars in which the dominant armed groups have established themselves by co-opting local power structures and drawing on existing socio-political networks, as this process redistributes power from the central to the local level. Empirically, this paper uses a novel dataset documenting the practices through which rebel groups may alter local power structures to highlight the connection between this wartime process of transformation and patterns of conflict recurrence. In addition, it contrasts the transition of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from rebellion to government in Ethiopia in the 1990s with the trajectory of the armed movements in Somalia that also overthrew the incumbent military regime but then failed to establish a viable state.

WIDER Working Paper 2023/17 Helsinki: UNU-WIDER, 2023

https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2023/325-3

With Shreya Chatterjee and Nikolas Myint

Efforts to promote social cohesion through development projects have had to contend with multiple definitions of the term, a lack of clarity on diagnostic and measurement approaches, and contradictory evidence on the effectiveness of different types of interventions meant to repair or reinforce it. This paper first offers a definition of social cohesion that highlights three sets of relations: those connecting individuals within a community (bonding), those connecting individuals across distinct communities (bridging), and those connecting individuals to people and structures in a position of power (linking). Together, these three dimensions constitute a framework for diagnosing gaps in social cohesion, assessing trends, and prioritizing interventions and investments. The paper also outlines strategies for diagnosing gaps in social cohesion and tracking trends along these three dimensions, providing concrete recommendations for teams designing social cohesion measurement strategies. Finally, the paper reviews the evidence on what works to reinforce cohesion within community, to build trust across groups, and to strengthen citizen-state relations. This review highlights different types of intervention that can help promote social cohesion, while suggesting that their effectiveness is conditional on sound diagnoses and rigorous implementation processes.

Policy Research Working Paper Series no. 10417. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2023

https://www.socialcohesion.info/fileadmin/user_upload/Library/PDF/Leveraging_Social_Cohesion_for_Development_Outcomes.pdf

Gender and enterprise development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A review of constraints and effective Interventions

With Francisco Campos

Female participation in entrepreneurial activities is higher in Sub-Saharan Africa than in any other region. However, women-owned businesses significantly underperform those owned by men. This paper identifies the main constraints that women face in developing their businesses in Africa and discusses how these constraints influence strategic choices in areas such as level of investment and sector of operations. The paper synthesizes the emerging lessons about what works and what does not work to address the underlying constraints to the performance of women-owned firms. Moreover, it identifies knowledge gaps and priority research questions. The paper aims to support the development of a gender-informed policy and research agenda on enterprise development that can guide practitioners, development partners, and researchers who seek to advance women’s economic empowerment in Africa.

Policy Research Working Paper Series no. 8239. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2017 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/ad839540-cd59-5452-80db-5aea8c2593b3

Book review

Review of: Christopher Clapham. The Horn of Africa: State Formation and Decay. London, Hurst & Company, 2017, 224 pages

https://shs.cairn.info/article/CRII_081_0203?tab=texte-integral

Select invited talks

World Bank/IDOS Joint seminar series — “Social Cohesion in Situations of Fragility, Conflict and Violence” — December 7, 2021 https://www.socialcohesion.info/events-detailview/social-cohesion-online-seminar-fragility-conflict
IRSEM Seminar — “Anatomies de la rébellion en Éthiopie” — September 8, 2021
T. E. Lawrence Workshop on Conflict and Violence – Rebel group engagement with local politics: The role of ideology, opportunity, and transaction costs — November 19, 2019